The €200,000 Question: What Happens When TheFork Raises Commission Rates?

November 2015: TheFork charges €1.50 per reservation.

March 2018: Rate increases to €2.00 per reservation.

July 2020: Rate increases to €2.60 per reservation.

January 2024: Rate increases to €3.00-3.50 per reservation (market-dependent).

85% increase in 9 years.

And if you think they’re done raising rates, you haven’t been paying attention to platform economics.

The €200,000 question: What happens to your restaurant when TheFork raises commissions to €4.50? €5.00? €6.00?

Because it’s not “if.” It’s when.

The Platform Pricing Power Trap

Here’s how platform dependency becomes a financial hostage situation:

Year 1: Reasonable Partnership

TheFork Commission: €2.00 per cover Your Monthly Bookings: 400 via TheFork Monthly Cost: €800 Your Reaction: “Reasonable customer acquisition cost”

Year 3: Increased Dependency

TheFork Commission: €2.60 per cover (+30%) Your Monthly Bookings: 520 via TheFork (you’ve grown) Monthly Cost: €1,352 (+69% from Year 1) Your Reaction: “It’s gone up, but we’re getting more customers”

Hidden Reality: 65% of your bookings now come through TheFork. You didn’t notice dependency growing.

Year 5: Platform Control

TheFork Commission: €3.20 per cover (+60% from start) Your Monthly Bookings: 650 via TheFork Monthly Cost: €2,080 (+160% from Year 1) Your Reaction: “This is getting expensive, but what choice do I have?”

Hidden Reality: 72% of your bookings now come through TheFork. You’re locked in.

Year 7: Hostage Economics

TheFork Commission: €4.00 per cover (+100% from start) Your Monthly Bookings: 680 via TheFork Monthly Cost: €2,720 (+240% from Year 1) Your Reaction: “This is unsustainable, but I can’t afford to lose 72% of my reservations”

This is where you are now. Trapped.

Year 10: The Inevitable

TheFork Commission: €5.50 per cover (+183% from start, historical growth rate continued) Your Monthly Bookings: 700 via TheFork Monthly Cost: €3,850 Annual Cost: €46,200

For comparison:

• Your rent: €4,500/month (€54,000/year)
• TheFork commissions: €3,850/month (€46,200/year)

You’re paying almost as much for bookings as you pay for physical space.

Why Platforms Will Keep Raising Rates

Platform economics are ruthless:

Reason 1: You’ve Built Dependency

TheFork’s Data (They Know This About You):

• 72% of your reservations come via their platform
• You have 340 owned customer contacts
• Your direct booking capability: Minimal
• Your negotiating power: Zero

Their Calculation: “If we raise rates 20%, they’ll complain. But they won’t leave. They can’t leave. They depend on us.”

They’re right.

Reason 2: Investor Pressure for Growth

Platform Business Model:

• Take €500M in venture capital
• Promise investors 40% annual growth
• Growth comes from: More restaurants OR higher commissions OR both

When restaurant growth slows:

• Option A: Raise commission rates 15-25%
• Option B: Miss growth targets, disappoint investors
• They choose Option A. Every time.

Reason 3: Market Consolidation Eliminates Competition

2015: Multiple competing platforms, competitive rates

2025: TheFork owns most of European market

• Acquired La Fourchette (France)
• Acquired El Tenedor (Spain)
• Acquired Restorando (Latin America)
• Partnership with TripAdvisor

Market concentration = pricing power

When you can’t switch to competitors, platforms can charge what they want.

Reason 4: Restaurants Accept Incremental Increases

€2.60 → €3.00 (+€0.40):

• Restaurant Owner: “It’s annoying, but only €0.40 more per cover”
• Reality: 15% rate increase, €2,400/year more cost

€3.00 → €3.50 (+€0.50):

• Restaurant Owner: “Half a euro isn’t much in the grand scheme”
• Reality: 17% rate increase, €3,000/year more cost

€3.50 → €4.20 (+€0.70):

• Restaurant Owner: “This is frustrating, but we’re stuck”
• Reality: 20% rate increase, €4,200/year more cost

Small increments hide massive cumulative impact.

Total increase over 3 years: 62% rate increase, €9,600/year additional cost

Because you accept each increment individually, platforms can raise rates indefinitely.

Real Scenario: Restaurant Facing Commission Increase

La Trattor ia Bella (Milan)

Current State (January 2025):

• Total monthly covers: 850
• TheFork bookings: 595 (70%)
• Direct bookings: 255 (30%)
• TheFork commission: €3.50/cover
• Monthly commission cost: €2,082.50
• Annual commission cost: €24,990

TheFork Announces: Rate Increase to €4.50 (July 2025)

Owner’s Calculation:

Option 1: Accept Rate Increase

• New monthly cost: 595 covers × €4.50 = €2,677.50
• Annual cost: €32,130
• Additional cost: €7,140/year

Option 2: Try to Reduce Dependency Quickly

• Panic marketing campaign
• Steep direct booking discounts (20% off)
• Platform bookings drop 30%, but at what cost?
• Lost revenue from discounting: €8,000-12,000
• Net result: Similar or worse than accepting increase

Option 3: Leave TheFork Entirely

• Lose 595 bookings monthly immediately
• Direct booking capability: Can’t replace that volume quickly
• Revenue loss: Catastrophic
• Not viable

Owner’s Conclusion: “I have to accept the increase. I have no choice.”

This is platform hostage economics.

The €200,000 Impact Over 5 Years

Let’s project platform commission increases over the next 5 years based on historical growth rates:

Restaurant Profile:

• Current TheFork bookings: 600/month
• Current commission rate: €3.50
• Platform dependency: 70%

Year-by-Year Projection (Conservative 12% Annual Increases):

Year	Commission Rate	Monthly Cost	Annual Cost	Cumulative 5-Year
2025	€3.50	€2,100	€25,200	€25,200
2026	€3.92	€2,352	€28,224	€53,424
2027	€4.39	€2,634	€31,611	€85,035
2028	€4.92	€2,950	€35,404	€120,439
2029	€5.51	€3,304	€39,653	€160,092
2030	€6.17	€3,701	€44,411	€204,503

5-Year Total Commission Paid: €204,503

If you do nothing to reduce platform dependency, you’ll pay over €200,000 in commissions over the next 5 years.

For comparison, that’s:

• Equivalent to 4-5 years of rent
• Enough to fully renovate your restaurant
• Enough to hire 2 full-time staff for 5 years
• Enough to open a second location

All paid to TheFork for providing what amounts to a glorified booking form.

How AI Marketing Agents Future-Proof Against Rate Increases

The solution isn’t hoping platforms don’t raise rates. It’s systematically reducing dependency before they do.

The AI Agent Platform Reduction Strategy:

Goal: Reduce platform dependency from 70% to 25% over 18 months

Method: Autonomous AI marketing agent systematically converts platform guests to owned relationships

Scenario: Restaurant Deploys AI Agent (2025)

Starting Position (January 2025):

• TheFork bookings: 600/month at €3.50 = €2,100/month
• Platform dependency: 70%
• Owned customer database: 420 contacts

AI Agent Deployment:

• Monthly cost: €650
• Imports TheFork guest data automatically
• Launches re-engagement campaigns 24/7
• Systematically converts platform guests to direct bookers

18-Month Platform Reduction Results:

Month	TheFork Bookings	Platform %	Commission @ Current Rate	If Rate Increases to €4.50	Savings vs No AI
Jan ‘25	600	70%	€2,100	-	-
Jun ‘25	485	57%	€1,698	-	-
Dec ‘25	380	44%	€1,330	€1,710	€380/month
Jun ‘26	285	33%	€997	€1,283	€1,394/month
Jul ‘26	270	31%	€945 (€3.50)	€1,215 (€4.50)	€1,462/month

When Rate Increase Hits (July 2026):

Restaurant WITHOUT AI Agent:

• Still 70% platform dependent (600 bookings)
• Commission jumps: €2,100 → €2,700
• Annual cost at new rate: €32,400
• No recourse, must accept

Restaurant WITH AI Agent:

• Reduced to 31% platform dependent (270 bookings)
• Commission impact: €945 → €1,215 (+€270)
• Annual cost at new rate: €14,580
• Saved €17,820/year vs. non-AI restaurant

The AI agent didn’t just reduce current costs. It future-proofed against rate increases.

The Compounding Advantage of Early Reduction

Why starting platform reduction NOW matters:

Scenario A: Start Reducing Dependency Today (2025)

2025-2026:

• AI agent reduces dependency 70% → 31%
• You pay commissions on declining platform volume
• Rates increase, but you’re less exposed

2027:

• TheFork raises rates to €5.50
• You’re still only 28% platform dependent
• Impact: Manageable (€300/month increase)

2030:

• TheFork at €7.00/cover
• You’re at 20% platform dependency (strategic use only)
• Total 5-year commissions paid: €78,000

Scenario B: Wait Until Rates Increase (2026)

2025-2026:

• You stay 70% platform dependent
• Rates increase to €4.50
• Now you panic and deploy AI agent

2027:

• AI agent working, but dependency still 55%
• TheFork raises to €5.50
• Impact: Severe (€1,800/month)

2030:

• Finally reduced to 35% dependency
• Rates now €7.00/cover
• Total 5-year commissions paid: €142,000

Difference: €64,000 saved by starting early

Every month you delay platform reduction costs you money when rates inevitably increase.

The Hidden Leverage: Negotiating from Independence

Here’s what restaurants with AI-powered platform independence discover:

Before (70% Platform Dependent):

Restaurant Owner: “Your rates are too high. Can we negotiate?”

TheFork Account Manager: checks dependency metrics “You get 70% of bookings through us. Our rates are fair for the value we provide.”

Translation: “You need us more than we need you. No negotiation.”

After (25% Platform Dependent):

Restaurant Owner: “We’re reducing our TheFork usage. Commission rates aren’t competitive with our direct booking costs.”

TheFork Account Manager: checks dependency metrics, sees 75% decline in bookings “Let’s discuss a preferred partner rate. How about €2.80/cover?”

Translation: “You’ve proven you don’t need us. We’ll negotiate to keep your business.”

Real Example:

Bistro Laurent (Paris):

• Reduced platform dependency from 73% to 31% using AI agent
• Approached TheFork to negotiate rates
• TheFork offered: €2.60/cover (down from €3.50)
• Savings: €0.90/cover on remaining platform bookings
• Annual savings: €2,916 (on top of dependency reduction savings)

Irony: By proving you don’t need TheFork, they become willing to compete for your business.

You can’t negotiate from weakness. Platform independence = negotiating power.

What to Do Right Now

If you’re 60%+ platform dependent, you’re vulnerable to rate increases you can’t control.

The Three Paths Forward:

Path 1: Do Nothing (Most Expensive)

Short-term:

• No changes required
• Current costs continue

Long-term:

• Accept all rate increases indefinitely
• Pay €200,000+ over 5 years
• Watch margins erode
• Hope platforms stop raising rates (they won’t)

Outcome: Maximum cost, zero control

Path 2: Manual Platform Reduction (Time-Intensive)

Short-term:

• Export platform data manually
• Send periodic marketing campaigns
• 15-20 hours weekly effort

Long-term:

• Slow, inconsistent dependency reduction (15-25% over 18 months)
• Burnout risk high
• Still pay €120,000-150,000 over 5 years

Outcome: High effort, moderate results

Path 3: AI-Powered Platform Reduction (Optimal)

Short-term:

• Deploy autonomous AI marketing agent
• AI handles all platform guest conversion
• 0 hours weekly effort required

Long-term:

• Systematic dependency reduction (50-70% over 18 months)
• Future-proofed against rate increases
• Total 5-year cost: €60,000-90,000 (including AI investment)

Outcome: Zero effort, maximum savings

Most restaurants choose Path 1 (do nothing) until a rate increase forces crisis mode.

Smart restaurants choose Path 3 before the next increase hits.

The Bottom Line

TheFork raised rates 85% between 2015-2024.

Historical pattern: 10-15% increases every 18-24 months.

Your current commission: €3.00-3.50

Projected 2030 commission: €6.00-7.00 (if pattern continues)

If you’re 70% platform dependent:

• You’ll pay €200,000+ in commissions over 5 years
• Every rate increase hits you at full force
• You have zero negotiating power
• You’re financially hostage to platform decisions

If you deploy AI agent and reduce dependency to 25%:

• You’ll pay €60,000-80,000 over 5 years (including AI cost)
• Rate increases have minimal impact
• You gain negotiating leverage
• You control your customer relationships

Savings: €120,000-140,000 over 5 years

The €200,000 question isn’t “if” TheFork will raise rates.

It’s whether you’ll still be 70% dependent when they do.

Ready to future-proof against platform rate increases?

Discover how autonomous AI marketing agents systematically reduce platform dependency before the next commission increase—explore Caramel’s AI marketing agents or learn about the Signature Concierge Service for Michelin-starred restaurants.

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Platform commission rates have risen 85% since 2015. The next increase is coming. Reduce your dependency now, or pay the price later.